Albert Nogués (@anogues1985en Twitter) es en mi opinión uno de los mejores especialistas españoles en las carreras de caballos que se disputan en el Reino Unido. Sabe de lo que habla y sus comentarios siempre son didácticos, hecho que agradecemos los que amamos este deporte.
Albert tiene a sus espaldas una dilatada experiencia en las apuestas de caballos y creédme si os digo que de él podemos aprender mucho. Su talento alcanza su máxima expresión en las carreras lisas y si hay un hipódromo que domina a la perfección este es Southwell. Hace unos días le pedí que compartiera una de sus habituales previas para los lectores de mi blog y ha cumplido su palabra. Veréis que el texto está redactado en inglés, con las selecciones de cada carrera resaltadas en negrita. Cuando todos los ojos estarán puestos en el gran festival de Cheltenham puede representar una buena decisión buscar el value en la fibresand de Southwell. Estos son, por tanto, sus pensamientos sobre las carreras de mañana en Southwell:
The early make up of the market looks OK with Jaeger Train and Handvowen commanding the market, specially with the latter as Johnston horses tend to run well here and he boasts a good strike ratio and a healthy profit. However, this is far more complex that it may look at first sight with few outsiders looking to shape much better than they showed in previous races and we can consider other contestants like Incurs your faults a Keith Dagleish horses are running extremely well here first time out, Luv U Honey as it shaped a bit better on his first run here lto and Oriental Maid, one that did not fare as bad as it looks on début and with the bonus if his second run and also in a track where Brian Ellison usually excels (won this race last year)
Arabian Flight is in good order recently but he is not competitive weighted here and if My Son Max is in form, could easily take this if Royal Warrior is not OK after nearly a year off.
Very Tricky. I recommended backing dissent lto and was a shame that he did not manage to win after a clear gamble on him. The price tomorrow it may be just short in reaction to that and while it may be enough as he has a clear fancy I really like Heartsong back in a handicap. He has a very good chance off this weight and If the price is right, he deserves a solid bet. Incomparable and Dancing Freddy are others to keep an eye on, the first because has been off for more than two years but comes form a good yard here and on a very competitive mark considering the useful form shown here a few years ago and with Matthew Hopkins taking 7 is extremely well weighted if the horse is fit. The latter, because is one that is going to strike anytime soon but you never know when this yard has one ready until you see the money.
I think O’gorman is one to keep on side in a closer future but maybe tomorrow is not the day as i was a bit upset with what he shown the other day and clearly there are a few specialists here that present better credentials. King bertie could be still handicapped on terms to win but has been off for nearly half a year so i much prefer to look into another. Mappin time is running very well here and is still well handicapped. Abby Scarlet may be a shade too high in the weights like Electric Qatar back in a handicap. Mysterial is another that could be dangerous but has been also off a lot of time. The chances are that Start up in the sky is one of the better handicapped runners here and despite running from out of the handicap could make an impact as the jockey takes off the penalty forhis last win. However, having said that it may be that all have to settle for minour honors as we have an exceptional fibresand animal here in the shape of Kung Hey Fat Choi and after finding the elusive third win here in the fibresand arena he may keep going on what looks a very good handicap mark back after a break.
Berkeley Street could take this poor race
Jacobs Son should win this
Wide Open. Several of these look that could play an important role here and all will come down to the prices offered. On the cusp has never been very trustful so is one not to take at a short price. Bethan, Reach the Beach, Kyllachikov and Aureate have all run decently here recently and may be interesting if the prices are right.